What will be the outcome of Annie Altman’s lawsuit against Sam Altman? (Altman v. Altman)
What will be the outcome of Annie Altman’s lawsuit against Sam Altman? (Altman v. Altman)
Plus
13
Ṁ17202030
6%
Judgment in favor of plaintiff
15%
Judgment in favor of defendant
68%
Dismissal
11%
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QDczBduZorG4dxZiW/sam-altman-s-sister-annie-altman-claims-sam-has-severely
https://x.com/sama/status/1876780763653263770
https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69520118/altman-v-altman/
My understanding is that the three options I have added cover all possible outcomes; I will add more if and only if I learn that this is not the case.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST): - Settlement out of court will be considered as dismissal in determining the outcome. (AI summary of creator comment)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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