Resolution by majority of credible media reports at market expiry as judged by me; I won't trade on my own answers.
Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If most information remains uncertain at the original market expiry date (Jan 12, 2026), the deadline will be extended for questions that remain uncertain.
Update 2025-12-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the purposes of resolving whether a victim was specifically targeted, a victim is defined as someone who was physically harmed in the attack.
Update 2025-12-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Deadliest shooting: Defined as occurring in the US (current 2025 record: 7 deaths).
The creator is waiting for further hospital discharges to rule out the possibility of the death count exceeding this record before resolving.
1,000
3.00@bens he didn’t last very long. I suspect we’ll learn more about what he did that year and whether he worked as a TA or paid researcher etc
@nonnihil He flew to Providence from Miami in October, does that count as a resident of Rhode Island?
@FecalAbhuman (I took the opposite side and bet on it earlier)
While a market clearly cpuld choose to count death differently, it seems way more intuitive to include "weve recovered their body" under caught unless told otherwise.
Col. Perez said the suspect worked alone and the killings were not antisemitic in nature. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12/18/us/brown-shooting-suspect/5b9eabe4-a75b-51a1-b862-f5d6a52acbe8?smid=url-share
@Bayesian possibly professional jealousy of his much more successful classmate and/or anger at the program (and building) from which he dropped out
@nonnihil If the link to the MIT shooting is confirmed, does that affect the "at least one victim was specifically targeted" markets? I'm assuming that's only for the shootings that took place directly on Brown University's campus?
At the suggestion of folks in the comments, I'm going to close out:
- FBI asks the public for tips (this happened on Monday)
- At least one death, (this happened immediately)
- Caught by the 16th (this time window passed yesterday)
I'll leave open the higher-death-count ones until I see a report the victims are out of the hospital, but those could also resolve soon.
@nonnihil Per https://www.browndailyherald.com/article/2025/12/shooting-live-updates there are now only six victims still hospitalized, so I am going to resolve the 10 and 20 death counts NO.
@DanzoAlerantos
(1) "The deadliest shooting" could mean just in the US, rather than anywhere in the world;
(2) According the gun violence network, the deadliest shooting in the US in 2025 killed just 7 people;
(3) As of this afternoon six people remain hospitalized, some still in critical condition;
(4) If everyone currently hospitalized died, that would be 8 people.
So I'm waiting until another person is released from hospital (I assume that's tomorrow-ish).
It's an arbitrary line, but prudence requires that I draw it somewhere.