Will there be a reasoning model more powerful than o1-preview, and cheaper and >10x faster than o1-mini, by Nov 12 2025? | Manifold

Will there be a reasoning model more powerful than o1-preview, and cheaper and >10x faster than o1-mini, by Nov 12 2025?

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By Nov 12 2025, will there be a model that meets all of these criteria:

>84.6% on the Artificial Analysis Quality Index
- ie the average of benchmark scores on
  - MMLU
  - GPQA
  - MATH
  - HumanEval
  - MGSM
- with no regressions on any individual benchmark
<$3/M input tokens, <$12/M output tokens, >720 tokens/sec

Note:

does not need to be an OpenAI model
open weights or free models will count as cheaper
quantized/distilled versions count, as long as they also beat the same accuracy thresholds

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>720 tokens/sec per Artificial Analysis' figures?

seems like a high bar

@JoshYou imo we’ve only just started realizing algorithmic speedups- still seems to be plenty of low hanging fruit, in fact if there /isn’t/ a reasoning model that is faster than that (regardless of acc) by this time next year I would be extremely surprised. Also whether speedups attributed to blackwell hw speedups or no, we can discuss, ie should it be measured wrt current h100s

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