Scott Alexander's AI movie market has been trading very consistently at 50%.

This market resolves to 2 * | distance of linked market from 50% |

So if linked market is at 72%, this would resolve to 44%.

If linked market is trading at 1%, this resolves to 98%.

To determine the price of the linked market, I'll take the volume weighted average price of the last 5 trades at the end of 2024. Obviously I won't trade in that market near resolution time. (time may be slightly randomized to avoid distorting linked market)

https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

50% chance. IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.