What user will be banned next from the #off-topic EleutherAI channel (730095596861521970)? A user is considered "banned" if they are deliberately, selectively and involuntarily: timed out from #off-topic for at least 1 day; otherwise made unable to post in #off-topic by staff for at least 1 day; or banned from the server as a result of their communication in #off-topic. Users with fewer than 1000 total messages are excluded.
QUICK USER TO NUMBER MAPPING (apparently SHA256 is "too complicated") (ask me for others):
kublaikhan1: 2
mkualquiera: 1
gollark: 3
dmayhem: 4
canadagoose1: 1
quantum_moon_: 5
triggerhappygandhi: 4
main.ai: 2
bmk1476: 7
meowmix#8975: 7
hyperion.ai: 7
theking_num_6118: 5
wonkothesensible: 1
ilovescience: 1
giftedgummybee: 1
.skyblaze: 6
kurumuz: 5
As it's apparently not possible to create free response markets, this will instead resolve to the last digit (modulo 8) of the SHA256 hash (in hex) of the user's numeric account ID (in decimal, no trailing newline). The last digit can be generated via e.g. "echo -n 258639553357676545 | sha256sum", DuckDuckGo searches ("sha256 258639553357676545") or various online tools (https://xorbin.com/tools/sha256-hash-calculator seems to work). Given the user ID 258639553357676545 the hash is 9531fc0a32cb690253025b5dbf43890b6165eec962b0b0ab8722241f7fe384f3 so if this user was banned the market would resolve to 3.
1,000
3.00A similar market, but based on different info about the user: https://manifold.markets/ChristopherKing/who-will-be-banned-next-from-offtop-edc3108c396d?r=Q2hyaXN0b3BoZXJLaW5n
Far more interesting question;
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherKing/how-many-users-will-get-a-warning-f?r=Q2hyaXN0b3BoZXJLaW5n
Here are some users and their corresponding last ID hash digits modulo 8, since apparently most people don't feel like calculating this:
kublaikhan1: 2
mkualquiera: 1
gollark: 3
dmayhem: 4
canadagoose1: 1
quantum_moon_: 5
triggerhappygandhi: 4
Note that AI_WAIFU, a moderator, has "[precommited] to unfairly exploiting this market if it makes [their] mod duties more difficult".
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00