Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?
Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?
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By "new" I mean any virus that is not a close mutation of any other viruses that currently in 2023 predictably infect humans.
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By "new" do you mean new strain or new species?
(e.g. SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are two strains of the same species; would a SARS-CoV-3 count as "new"?)
Also, what counts as "regularly"? (e.g. would you say that in 2016 measles "regularly" infected humans, even though its incidence was 20ish cases per million people per year? what about MERS, which is contagious among humans but usually with R0 < 1?)
@ArmandodiMatteo I'd say that regular could be changed to predictably, for more specificity. I will change the phrasing of "mutation" to "close mutation" by which I'd imagine that it must rely on a slightly different mechanism.
@ArmandodiMatteo However, I'm not an expert, so if you have any suggestions I'm happy to take them.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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