Market resolves as YES if a member of the Executive Branch to include DOJ lawyers is held in contempt of court by a judge.
While this question is motivated by the incident involving a plane deporting alleged gang members, any event that results in a member of the executive branch being held in contempt shall resolve as YES.
1,000
3.00@ThePontoon As far too many Manifold traders forget - always read the resolution criteria and always read the close date.
@Emanuele1000 yes it is. If no time frame is given, the general assumption is that the close date represents the end. Additionally, the creator clarified this in the comments.
@bens If you want to limit market question to within a specific date the date should be specified in the market description.
@bens if no time frame is given, "general assumption" is a pretty precarious way of sorting things out. Since the description is written without any end date and leaves the topic open ended its kinda crappy. Sure I'm new and didn't know markets had a close date that's tucked away, but OP should be way more explicit and clear in what consistutes a yes or no outcome.
If no time frame is given, the general assumption is that the close date represents the end.
This is generally not how Manifold operates, with many many markets having close dates that are disconnected to the resolution.
@Gabrielle that’s not true. Those markets typically specify a resolution date. If there’s no resolution date specified then it’s assumed to be the end date of the market. Imagine if this market had an end date of 12/31/2025. Would you still be making the argument that it is ambiguous?
@qao Markets might close before their resolution date for a few reasons.
The most common is that the creator wanted bets to be predictions for an event, rather than just going to whoever bet first when the event happened. A prototypical example here would be a baseball game, where someone physically at the game would be able to react and bet faster than someone watching a stream of the game. That’s also valuable for the creator because when the market resolves you get back whatever mana is left in the market, which is higher the further away the market probability is for the result.
Also a lot of time the creators unintentionally will set the close date incorrectly, meaning a different resolution date than what was set as the closing date.
In any case, best practice is to always clarify in the market description what timeframe the market actually refers to. But I totally get that it was one of your first markets, no worries!
@PoliticalEconomyPK no , the trading time cannot be extended as people have been trading based on an assumption that the action must occur by the close time of the market
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@jcb prolly bc I made this question when I was new and didn't understand how explicit I needed to make the resolution date
@jcb where did it state the closing date on this market? I still can't see it specified anywhere and the description implies that it will go on indefinitely as along as the trump administration was in place. Feels very misleading
@ThePontoon the close date has been the same the entire lifespan of this market. The close date is in the upper right corner on most web/mobile browsers.
I agree it is pretty unideal that it wasn’t specified explicitly in the criteria as well, but you should always check the close date before betting in markets without clarified time spans. The criteria doesn’t say, for example, “at any point during the Trump administration” or something.
Extended market for this until end of June: https://manifold.markets/Balasar/trump-admin-official-held-in-contem?r=QmFsYXNhcg