Will I consistently work weekends in 10 years?
Will I consistently work weekends in 10 years?
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@jeremiahsamroo hey, if you’re the jeremiah from princeton, i think you might’ve missed the call we had booked (although there’s a good chance i’m misremembering and it was my mistake!) — feel free to book another one here: savvycal.com/saulmunn/forecasting-clubs
What counts as consistently working weekends? Would every other weekend count? What about 80% of weekends?
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@NoaNabeshima I'm used to not having a fixed work schedule and then just working on the weekends if it "feels right". It seems to me like your proposed operationalization assumes you'll have something like a routine for a work week in 2033, which I think you might not have. I kind of want the operationalization to be crisper and unambiguous in some way.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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