if a Cybertruck driver attempts to navigate a body of water, will it be successful?
if a Cybertruck driver attempts to navigate a body of water, will it be successful?
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according to an Elon tweet, the Cybertruck is capable of navigating water as a boat.
now that Cybertruck is shipping, if someone attempts to drive it "as a boat," will they succeed?
the criteria I'm using are:
use as a boat = all wheels suspended while the Cybertruck is in a body of water
succeed = Cybertruck is able to enter, float, and exit the water on its own accord without functional damage (cosmetic damage irrelevant)
feel free to bet on this related market, of course:
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The other market is much higher, this one involves fresh water and a safer kind of water to float across. I'm guessing it doesn't James Bond it and the wheels turn into propellers, so the sea is pretty dangerous, it would just float helplessly.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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