Although he entered the U.S. without proper documentation as a teenager in 2011, multiple outlets have reported that Abrego Garcia was granted a protected status "based on concerns that he could be persecuted by gangs" if he were to return to El Salvador. Abrego Garcia, who is father to a 5-year-old son, was living in Maryland and has had a work permit since 2019, per Reuters.
Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia was stopped by ICE agents on March 12, 2025. He was then detained in Texas and, according to court documents, was falsely told that his immigration status had changed. His wife only realised that he had been deported when she recognised him in photos of detainees in the El Salvadoran prison for terrorists and violent criminals, where he had been sent along with hundreds of other deportees.
President Bukele of El Salvador visited the White House this morning, and stated that he cannot and will not return Abrego Garcia to the United States as Trump nodded along. This has led to a lot of questions about the welfare of Abrego Garcia and whether he is still alive.
Will there be credible evidence from verified sources, proving that Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is still alive?
Evidence can be photos, videos, or his arrival back in the United States.
Credible sources will not include statements from El Salvador or the United States due to conflicts of interest.
I may consider reputable sources such as esteemed journalists or rights organisations if they say they have personally seen Abrego Garcia but do not have a photo or video of him.
The market will resolve Yes when he is confirmed alive as of April 14th or later, even if he later does not survive. In the case that visual evidence is provided but there is a question of when it was taken, I will wait to resolve as older photos/videos can be considered misleading on his current status.
The market will resolve No if he is reliably confirmed dead, photos or videos obviously not required but this must come from reputable sources including his wife or official, unambiguous government acknowledgement.
1,000
3.00
if this tweet and article are to be believed, Rep Riley Moore was allowed a tour in recent days:
in the YT video linked above, he says the VP of El Salvador will not permit him to visit the prison today or next week, and he cannot arrange even a phone call ("maybe if the embassy arranges that") so he's going to try that. the VPs repeated response is that he's "not sure" he can make any of these connections happen and will not provide any proof of life.
Vance and the administration seem to be doubling down on unverified claims that Abrego Garcia was a gang member (and the lie that he was an illegal alien - he reportedly had a valid work visa and status in the US), and are tribalising the issue to make their point. I'm afraid this doesn't bode well for his wellbeing.
the administration itself confirmed that he was deported due to a clerical error, yet Vance seemingly will not acknowledge that.
@shankypanky If he isn't confirmed to be dead OR alive before May 6th, then will this market resolve 'No'?
@snazzlePop the question is whether he's confirmed alive on/before May 6 so absent any qualifying confirmation by the date, it resolves No.