If we look at the our world on data chart, we can see that change is very slow. Why would it shift that strong in only 7 years (e.g. to solar)? Where does natural gas replace oil, except for heating?

@Gideon37 Also coal will stay strong for a long time as a huge portion of that goes into steel, not electricity production.

@Gideon37 My rationale for betting on NG was that it would replace coal and other electricity generation not replace oil directly. Also Oil will decline with more EV adaption but idk if that ends up happening in a big way by 2030

Ok I think I have an idea of how to update the criteria. Use this metric from the Energy institute statistical review.

Global primary energy consumption by source (ourworldindata.org)

@BenAdams looks good, added it. Let me know whatever other ideas you have.

As measured by what? Total global capacity? Is "dominant" just whatever is the biggest share? All electricity or all energy? We need more detail

@BenAdams my idea is "whatever generates most of the world's energy in 2030". I would consider all energy, not just electrical generation. is that reasonable?

Is this in the world? Like the most common energy used worldwide in 2030?

@NathanScott yes, thanks. I updated the description.