At the time of market creation, Manifold users deem curing common cold by 2035 to be as likely as curing aging by 2030.
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3.00If we get to 'great pharmaceutical models', then curing common diseases is likely to happen as test cases on the side before aging is finished (even if a company throws billions immediately at aging, even with great pharma models it will still take time). Or you just have pharma companies not focusing on curing aging that hard, and just throwing a bunch of effort at various diseases.
If we get to AGI, and it is aligned, then Aging might be solved earlier due to it being a significant problem. However it has the benefit of scaling better than human organizations (hard to copy a human researcher) so it spins up enough to cure a bunch of the common diseases while it also does aging, making cryo definitely work, etcetera.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00