Will a movie or TV series based on a book by Brandon Sanderson be released prior to 2027?
Will a movie or TV series based on a book by Brandon Sanderson be released prior to 2027?
➕
Plus
50
Ṁ5388
2027
5%
chance

For TV series, there needs to be at least one season based on a book by Sanderson. The first episode of that particular season must be released before January 2027.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

Hmmm. Unless there's something already in development (definitely possible) it's sort of a tight turnaround to make the deadline, assuming it's another prestige series or movie (which it presumably would be given the popularity of his books).

@AndrewHartman Each of the Harry Potter films were created in less time.

Does the first or last episode of the season need to be released before 2027?

1y

@LukeHanks Thank you for the question. Description changed.

1y

Would this include the Wheel of Time books co-authored by Sanderson, if Amazon incorporates material from those in the WoT TV series by then?

1y

@NLeseul Yes, if a season based at least partially on one of the books 12-14 in the series is released before 2027.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules