Question resolves after the thrid major iteration of the Apple Vision Pro has been avaliable to purchase in the United States for one month (eg iPhone 4, Apple Watch Series 3). Resolution criteria will be independent market analytics such as https://www.statista.com/statistics/591181/global-augmented-virtual-reality-market-size/.
Benchmark will be relative to the market size in the last year before Apple Vision Pro was released. Resolves as N/A if Apple Vision Pro is cancled before release, and immediately resolves to the current value if Apple Vision Pro is cancled after release but before three major iterations.
1,000
3.00Since I’m now working at Apple, I’m closing all my related market positions to not leak any insider bits.
What if they discontinue Apple Vision Pro before version 3? does it resolve as whatever market change occured in 2034, or something else
@TheBayesian good question. I'm leaning towards resolving based on market change at the point its discontinued, since that fits with "as a result of Apple Vision Pro". Do you feel that resolution criteria would be in-line with the spirit of the question?
To clarify, it sounds like a comparison of the VR market's size between what is likely to be 2023 and what could be for example 2029?
@cloudprism Based on prior apple products, I would expect the time to three revisions to be much shorter. But yes, in principle, that is what this is judging.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00