📆What will happen in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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379
Ṁ190k
Jan 1
99%
Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2023) [EST] ***- $43,739.54 - closing price on Festivus 2023***
98.1%
linda yaccarino still ceo of twitter at end of year
91%
at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)
90%
Manifold users rate manifold politics as a successful experiment at eoy
85%
Deagle's old "2025 forecast" will turn out to be completely wrong
73%
Elon Musk spends Christmas Eve or Day with Trump (in person or virtually)
26%
official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)
20%
Another major Labour Party (UK) gaffe (post-Nov 20th)
18%
Anyone from the 2023 Time100 passes away (https://time.com/collection/100-most-influential-people-2023/)
16%
something related to seinfeld (the show) happens as jerry seinfeld hinted at last fall
16%
Total funding for the Effective Altruism movement grows >25% compared to 2023
15%
The next actor to play James Bond will be announced
15%
English Wikipedia will reach 6.93 million articles.
14%
Manifold raises more money (through grant, investment, or other means, at least $100K)
13%
Premier League total goal count: Delap ≥10; Palmer ≥11; and Salah ≥12 (https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/players/goals)
13%
an official legend of zelda movie trailer releases
11%
Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married (to anyone)
10%
Casa Bonita reopens to the general public with full normal restaurant hours (no longer invite/reservation only)
10%
Undersea internet cables severed around taiwan/china
9%
Jimmy Carter dies

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

@strutheo Syria counts for this, right?

@vitamind what would you consider to have been qualifying gaffes that happened pre-Nov 20th?

@TheAllMemeingEye really quickly off the top of my head:

  • Rachel Reeve's questionable CV.

  • Starmer hostage-sausage misspeak.

  • Labour proposing to pay their top government advisor (non-elected) more than Starmer.

I probably wouldn't count the following things because they never really "caught on" (i.e., never led to extended media and social media coverage, debate in parliament, cross-party criticism etc.:

@TheAllMemeingEye Canadian PM Justin Trudeau had a semi-scandal in January after calling a political opponent a "twofer" (defined by dictionary.com as "Disparaging. a person who belongs to two minority groups and can satisfy two quotas or appeal to two political constituencies, especially a Black woman who can be counted twice in a position she holds, as fulfilling a racial and a sexual quota."). Some would say that in context it was obviously not intended to be understood as a slur. Does it count as a racial slur for this market?

@UnspecifiedPerson what was the context it was said in?

@PoliticalEconomyPK Someone entering restricted area and being hit doesn't sound like ride failure to me. Negligence in inadequate signage might be possible but stupidly ignoring warning signs might also be possible?

@ChristopherRandles yeah this seems to be a personal mistake not an error or negligence on the park afaik

@strutheo
Busch Gardens Williamsburg

In August 2024, two people died at Busch Gardens Williamsburg: 

  • A 63-year-old employee was struck in the head by a roller coaster train while attempting to uncover a camera. The employee died from his injuries the following day. 

  • A seasonal contractor was killed when the high-reach vehicle he was on overturned while painting the Big Bad Wolf.

    Employee here seems similar to guest entering restricted area to recover keys.
    Contractor painting ride also does not seem like ride failure, Negligence in setting up high reach vehicle might be possible, but would that result in yes resolution as it seems unrelated to ride operation/equipment and negligence could well be by contractor not by park?

@Weezing i dont know who needs to hear this but en wiki is averaging about less then 200 new articles a day currently and its currently at 6.913 million articles as of 20th November. This will hardly be enough to reach 6.93

@PoliticalEconomyPK It now seems I do know who needs to hear this but en wiki is averaging around 480 new articles a day currently and it is at 6.913 million articles as of 20th November. This gives a forecast of ~6.932 million which is very close to the 6.93 threshold and it drifting towards being under is possible but my predictions have been quite steady and consistent in being slightly over in the predictions I am getting.

Resolves YES

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@strutheo
National team resolves yes

while
MLB World Series won by the American League team
resolves no

@BlueDragon What does "uncontested" mean in this context?

@Kraalnaxx That one of the candidates has conceded and we have a president elect

@Erskine does president elect count?

It does not say “elected”. It says “first female president” in 2024. To me, as posed, it must mean that a female would need to actually be president at some time in 2024. The only ambiguity, in my opinion, is which country she would be president of. 🙂

@OracleAtWiFi ill count elect in this case, i think we knew wht they meant. otherwise it was an impossible answer

bought Ṁ50 NO

@strutheo I don't agree, they should've specified. Besides, we have a lot of answers here that are basically proxies for "Harris wins".

ok then ill na it @mods ty

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