Which of the following 10 events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order?
Plus
48
Ṁ39492050
28%
The Simpsons ends
29%
Sagrada Familia Church completed
31%
Star Citizen released (or company ceases)
32%
2000 Pokemon released (or series ends)
36%
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
40%
Olympics hosted in Africa
40%
The Centennial Light Bulb burns out
56%
Tom Scott's 'This Video has X Views' reaches 500M views
70%
USA adds 51st state
74%
Human walks on Mars
Will resolve each event to a percentage as they happen, starting with 10% and working upward as follows:
1st event: 10% (happens soonest)
2nd event: 20%
...
10th event: 100% (happens latest)
If there is only one unresolved answer left, it will be resolved to 100% YES even if that event does not actually happen, since we could we waiting for a very long time.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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TLDR - raising a number implies you think that event will happen LATER (or not at all)
@JaimeSantaCruz The “yes is no” part. I don’t really understand the difference between independent and dependent MC
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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