Will Xi Jinping be murdered, deposed, or forced to abdicate like many other Chinese leaders by the end of 2030?
Will Xi Jinping be murdered, deposed, or forced to abdicate like many other Chinese leaders by the end of 2030?
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Succession_of_power_in_China
https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/xi-jinpings-succession-dilemma
Elite rebellion is not impossible. Research conducted by Milan Svolik shows that two-thirds of deposed authoritarians fall to inside challengers. Yuhua Wang finds that almost 60% of Chinese emperors who did not exit office by natural death were murdered, deposed, forced to abdicate, or forced to commit suicide by regime elites. A conceivable trigger for Xi would be an economic depression or military misadventure, or if he began purging his closest allies.
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What is Manifold?
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Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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