Suggested resolution criteria (Written by GPT-4o:

Resolution Criteria

1. Data Sources:

• The primary sources of data will be the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

• If available, supplementary data may be considered from large-scale health studies conducted by reputable institutions such as the National Institutes of Health (NIH) or peer-reviewed medical journals.

2. Measurement Period:

• Data must be collected for the entire calendar year of 2024 and the entire calendar year of 2025.

• Interim or partial-year data will not be considered.

3. Population:

• The data must cover a representative sample of the entire U.S. adult population, ages 18 and over.

• Data should be adjusted for demographic variables including age, gender, and ethnicity to ensure it accurately reflects the population.

@ElliotDavies These are great ideas

I might bet on this question if the resolution criteria gets better defined.

If we take a true average over the population, it seems like it will be mainly driven by kids aging rather than weight-loss drugs

@SaviorofPlant Agree, this will be dominated by demographic changes.