Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
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A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. We will use the initial estimate provided, not any revised estimates.

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@turtlepurple you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 to be negative?

Yes - this one is the "two quarters of negative growth" recession definition, that one is the "NBER declares it" recession definition (and as such it also resolves up to a year later).

Reasons why no:

  • higher interest rate environment means we can ease monetary policy to reduce recession risk

  • GDP growth and economic mainstreet conditions de-coupled a while ago, and weโ€™re very likely already in a strained economic environment for a lot of Americans.

  • Japanโ€™s current turmoil is largely because of unwinding of yen carry trades triggered from a more hawkish Japanese monetary policy

  • US is just Mr. Market at workโ€”the fed still makes policy based on the Philips curve that hasnโ€™t held for a generation, with that, the same report 6 months ago wouldโ€™ve been met by a rally since itโ€™s a clear signal to cut ratesโ€”itโ€™s also a single data point.

  • Any true breakthrough in LLM tech could single handedly buoy the US economy, even barring that just a few companies performing well can weigh the whole US gdp response, US is heavily concentrated

  • Any wartime escalation that touches the US will result in downstream economic gains

opened a แน€1,000 YES at 50% order

Good morning, America!

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