Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?
Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?
Plus
40
Ṁ29652030
89%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In the [original post](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things) Gary Marcus bets that <3 will resolve to YES. Will he lose his bet?
This market resolves YES if I believe he lost, i.e. I resolve at least three of the other markets to YES, not if Gary Marcus admits he lost.
Links to the other markets:
https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc
https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-read
https://manifold.markets/vluzko/in-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-work
https://manifold.markets/vluzko/in-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-cons
https://manifold.markets/vluzko/in-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-take
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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