A presidential election is planned in Russia for 15-17 March 2024.

Boris Nadezhdin intends to run for president. He openly opposes the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Elections in Russia aren't free and fair. Opposition to the invasion is repressed.

The question is conditional on my subjective feeling that there was significant political instability in Russia. If I don't, I will resolve N/A.

Conditional my thinking that such instability has taken place, I will resolve YES if I subjectively feel Nadezhdin's actions significantly contributed to it.

I may or may not resolve N/A, or freeze the market and consult with traders, should any weird edge cases arise.