Trump has promised no tax on tips, saying it will be "first thing in office"^1. It is also part of the republican party platform^2.

If Trump is elected, will there be no tax on tips by 1st Jan 2028? It doesn't have to be 100% no tax ever paid on any tip but I will resolve according to my wisdom.

Something like this heuristic: if I go to America to randomish place, and do my normal stuff and pay tips, will at least 70% of instances go lawfully untaxed.

If Trump is not elected, resolves N/A.

1. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-plan-end-taxes-tips-skepticism-1235062544/
2. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/2024-republican-party-platform

• Update 2025-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has acknowledged that their initial formulation of the heuristic (related to 70% of tips being lawfully untaxed) did not fully account for the variety of taxes that could apply to tips (e.g., federal, state, local, payroll taxes).

This suggests that the creator's assessment of whether tips are 'lawfully untaxed' will now more comprehensively consider this range of potential taxes when applying their wisdom to resolve the market.

• Update 2025-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that their 'wisdom' for resolving the market might involve delegating the decision to a poll.