Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?
Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?
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See https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008.
Resolves "yes" if reproduced by independent researchers unaffiliated with the authors of this paper and published in a reputable peer-reviewed journal before the start of 2025 UTC.
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What happens to this market if a replication study is published that fails to reproduce this effect? Would we still wait until the end of 2024?
@ParthKolekar I don't see how this market could resolve early unless the original publishers admit new facts or withdraw it
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
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