Resolves YES if by January 1, 2025, any of the following conditions are met:

• 5 or more gene-editing curative therapies have successfully completed phase III clinical trials for treating at least one major disease;

• A gene-editing curative therapy is approved by the FDA or the EMA for treating at least one major disease in the US or Europe;

• A gene-editing curative therapy has been endorsed by the WHO as an essential medicine for treating at least one major disease globally.

The above may be limited in scope: for example, in a breakthrough therapy FDA approval, or an approval for a subset of patients. Pre-approval access (e.g. compassionate use) is not counted.

Resolves NO otherwise.

Definitions:

• A major disease is defined by inclusion in the Global Burden of Disease study (most recent version available by 2025; excluding injuries; with appropriate translation between GBD and other classifications).

• A gene-editing curative therapy is defined as a technique that introduces targeted and precise changes in the DNA sequence of living cells (such as CRISPR or TALEN) and that cures or prevents the disease.

• Curing or preventing the disease is defined by such language – including close synonyms – being endorsed by at least one of the FDA, EMA, WHO, CDC, NIH, or NICE, regardless of scope, channel, and minor qualifications (ie. it may be considered a cure only for a subset of patients; it may be a press release; it can be a “promising” cure, etc.)

• Successful completion of phase III clinical trial means that the therapy is reported to have met its primary endpoint(s) with planned statistical thresholds and has demonstrated an acceptable safety profile.

The market is based on Sam Altman’s tweet from January 2019: “Predictions for the three most important technological developments that will happen by 2025: (…) Gene editing will have cured at least one major disease” (https://twitter.com/sama/status/1081584255510155264).