Will Trump suggest repealing the 22nd Amendment (term limits) before inauguration?
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35
Ṁ2047
Jan 22
20%
chance

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): A statement like "I suspect I won't be running again unless you say, 'He's so good we've got to figure something else out'" does not count as a suggestion to repeal the 22nd Amendment.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Statements suggesting that the 22nd Amendment doesn't apply to Trump (e.g., due to impeachment affecting term counts) do not count as suggestions to repeal the amendment.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Generic musings about being entitled to more terms or how people might want him to have more terms do not count as suggestions to repeal the 22nd Amendment.

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@zax Does suggesting that the 22nd amendment doesn't apply to him count? (e.g. "you know, they say because of the fake impeachment, I didn't get a full two terms so I can run again")

No, that's not in the spirit of the words I wrote in the title. A more vague market inclusive of stuff like that could be of interest.

Didn't he already?

Maybe it's the autism talking but I don't take "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out,’" as a real suggestion.

Are there other instances?

@zax Lots more:

  • In September 2020, he said at a campaign rally in Nevada: ‘‘We’re going to win four more years in the White House. And then after that, we’ll negotiate, right?” 

  • In July, Trump told Christians at a conservative religious summit that they “won’t have to vote anymore” if he were reelected.

  • In multiple other speeches, Trump has mentioned the possibility of serving anywhere from three to five terms as president.

  • In March 2018, he said he thought it was “great” that Chinese President Xi Jinping was “president for life,” adding, “Maybe we’ll give that a shot someday.”

via https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2024/11/14/dan-goldman-resolution-trump-3rd-term-22nd-amendment

All framed as jokes, but that's kinda his MO. When he's planning something, he floats something plausibly deniable to see how people respond.

It could again be the autism talking, but I read Goldman's resolution and don't think generic musings about how he's entitled to more terms or how people might want him to have more terms should count for this market.

@zax I have no stake here, partly because I suspected you might want him to literally say it, but if there's any concrete action you would take now in expectation of an attempt, I think you should take that action. Now that he's hinted around, whoever would support such an effort has already come to him privately and they'll be the one to literally say it, not him, but the effect will be the same.

Concrete actions like what? Buying a cottage in Canada?

@zax That's something only you can decide.

I think basically everyone is too long the United States to meaningfully hedge their exposure to it unless you literally have "buy a secure compound" money.

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