This market will resolve to the answer with the combination of the party of the president elected in the 2024 presidential elections and the average real GDP growth rate for the years 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028.
If a third-party candidate wins the 2024 presidential election, this market will be canceled. Average GDP growth will be calculated as the geometric mean of annual inflation-adjusted GDP growth for each of the four years, as reported by Our World in Data, or another broadly reliable source if the data cannot be obtained via Our World in Data. I expect the data to be available at https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/real-gdp-growth?tab=chart&time=2025..2028&country=~USA, but if Our World in Data changes the format of their URLs the data may be found at a different URL.
My original intent was to resolve the answers of the losing party to NO after the election; but I have been informed that it is not possible in a dependent multiple choice market like this one to resolve only some of the answers. Know that the Democrat president answers will be NO when this market resolves. (Free mana right now, for whoever takes it first...) Anything that happens from now on doesn't affect that part of the final answer—this is now a question about GDP growth.
1,000
3.00Do the effects of a president's policies line up chronologically with the presidents administrations?
On the one hand, a president's good plans may take a while to see fruit. President signs a law that boost productivity, but it takes a while to build the machines, hire the staff ect.
On the other hand, expectation of a presidents plans might precede their expectations. If a president with good ideas wins, stocks might rise in November, or potentially earlier if it winner becomes clear before the election. Companies might make more investments in anticipation of the upcoming administration, causing growth that occurs in his predecessor's administration.
@GG For example, I think Biden's decision to kill the Keystone XL pipeline in 2021 was bad for our GDP in the long run, but I don't think it had an appreciable effect during his administration. TC Energy estimated that they had two more years worth of work to do, but it probably would have taken twice that much time once you account for the delays and legal challenges it would faced. So in the counterfactual world where Biden lets Keystone Continue, it doesn't start pumping oil until 2023 at earliest, but more likely 2025 or 2026. So the effects of BIden's anti-Keystone policy will mostly be felt by the Trump 2025-2029 administration.
I have been informed on the discord that the way I wanted to resolve this is not possible; in dependent multiple-choice markets like this one you can't resolve just some of the options.
I guess the best way to continue from here is to leave those options open; the only downside to that is that it locks up the money bet on them for four years. Hopefully manifold will reintroduce loans (in mana markets) sometime soon, and then this won't be such a big deal. But if anyone feels they lost out by this change, send me a DM and I'll see what I can do to make it up to you.
Those r not MY words, idiot, those r facts. Know the difference b4 u go barking. Bet if the sun will rise tmw (also call Fact)? Your trade has NOTHING to do with ur “clickbait”title. Your trade is which party will win and the “associated” GDP growth 4 yrs out. One set of data points (ur trade) is not a trend (ur title)