I will resolve to yes if I conclude that the child tax credit, as signed into law, will give 5,000$ per child to the majority of parents. If a minority of parents will not be eligible to receive the full amount, such as because the benefit is not fully refundable or because it's not available to those with too high an income, I will still resolve to yes. But if there are enough eligibility restrictions that the I conclude that majority of parents will not be eligible to receive the full amount, I will resolve no.

I will resolve yes if the measure is signed into law, even if it doesn't go into effect before Nov 7 2028, and even if it is later blocked by the courts.

I will not bet in this market.

[ETA: if it's more than 5,000, I will still resolve yes.]