This market will resolve based on my subjective opinion. I won’t bet on this market.
For an change to be major enough to resolve this market to YES, it would have to be similar to:
A new amendment being added to the Constitution
A third party gaining prominence comparable to the Democratic and Republican parties
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact coming into effect
The number of Supreme Court justices being increased
A state being added to or seceding from the US
The House of Representatives beginning to use proportional representation
The number of representatives in the House of Representatives being increased
1,000
3.00@squirrelfish Yes, if it was for all bills. Reducing the number of Senators required to pass a bill to just a majority would be a big change. I would not have counted ending the filibuster for just judicial nominations.
@squirrelfish Looks like it’s at about 50% in this market although that’s a bit shorter of a time frame