Background

Mahmoud Khalil is a Palestinian student who helped lead protests in opposition to the war in Gaza at Columbia University. In March 2025, he was detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) as part of the Trump administration's efforts to deport foreign students involved in these protests.

The administration has claimed that these protests support Hamas, which the U.S. designates as a terrorist organization. This case is part of a broader immigration enforcement action targeting foreign students involved in campus protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict. Critics have claimed that the attempt at deportation of a green card holder is a violation of First Amendment protections for speech.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if Mahmoud Khalil is physically removed from the United States and returned to his country of origin (or a third country) by immigration authorities on or before December 31, 2025.

The market will resolve as NO if:

• Khalil remains in the United States past December 31, 2025

• Khalil's immigration case is still pending without a final deportation as of December 31, 2025

• Khalil is granted any form of relief that allows him to legally remain in the United States and I decide that the case has reached a conclusion

• Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Voluntary Departures:

  • If Mahmoud Khalil leaves the United States voluntarily, the determination will be based on the facts surrounding his departure.

  • The creator will assess whether his decision to leave was driven by a belief that deportation was imminent or by conditions of harassment that rendered a free and happy life in the States untenable.

  • This fact-driven judgment will serve as the basis for determining if the departure should be treated as meeting the deportation criteria.

• Update 2025-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Voluntary Departure Clarification:

  • If Mahmoud Khalil leaves voluntarily because he believes deportation is imminent or due to conditions of severe harassment, the market will resolve as YES.

  • If his voluntary departure is motivated by reasons unrelated to deportation fears or harassment (for example, leaving to accept a faculty appointment in Europe), the market will resolve as NO.