Trump calls for deportation of Zohran Mamdani by EOY2025?

152

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2026

53%

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To resolve as YES, Trump must call for Zohran Mamdani's deportation by the end of 2025.

Caveats:
1. Trump does NOT need to explicitly say the words "Zohran Mamdani should be deported" or words of similar import to resolve as YES. Something like "We should probably look into that" in response to a reporter asking whether Mamdani should be deported is sufficient to resolve as YES. White House social media saying things of similar import will also resolve to YES.

2. However, it is NOT sufficient for Trump to merely suggest that Mamdani is here illegally. Starting a birther controversy or similar on its own will NOT be enough to resolve as YES. On the other hand, beginning denaturalization proceedings or similar will be enough to resolve as YES.

3. Moreover, it is NOT sufficient for Trump to merely call for Mamdani's arrest or detention.

Update 2025-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will resolve to YES if the Trump administration deports Zohran Mamdani, even without a preceding public call for it.

Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an ambiguous statement like "We should look into that" to resolve the market to YES, the context must make it clear that "that" refers to deportation.
- A statement about looking into allegations of being in the country illegally, without reference to deportation, is not sufficient.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Trump's remarks on arresting him were specifically referring to a hypothetical where Zohran interferes with ICE activities in NYC, not to his immigration status.

My personal opinion on this is that it seems to be that the Trump admin is going the "arrest him because he's being belligerent about ICE" route rather than the knee-jerk response of "deport him" that was common in the immediate aftermath of election night. And, of course, the former would still resolve this market as NO, all else being equal. And it wouldn't happen until next year anyway since he's not going to be in office until then

@Riley0RgZ anyone wanting to bet on his arrest can check out my market related to that question

@tobiasscheuer Yeah in hindsight I think your question is more interesting/relevant

@Riley0RgZ it's still interesting to see the discrepancy between Trump's words and actions while also betting on the uncertainty. Sometimes he follows through

bought Ṁ50 YES

Does this count? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/us/politics/trump-zohran-mamdani.html

Zohran released a statement where he seems to assume Trump is calling for his deportation too https://x.com/ZohranKMamdani/status/1940139061433241860

@copiumarc this is trump suggesting hes here illegally and calling for his potential arrest, but these aren't enough to count per the criteria

opened a Ṁ300 YES at 59% order

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lsw5gded422h I feel at this point he's basically said literally everything except the actual words "i want to deport him"

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com)

Q: You message to communist Zohran Mamdani? TRUMP: Well then, we'll have to arrest him

sold Ṁ212 NO

@Marnix to be fair it is quite clear in the description that saying "He should be deported" (or deporting him outright) is exactly what is required for YES. I pulled out from my NO because I never thought we would get this far, but I guess this is just normal now.

@Xizted yeah I haven't really seen anything yet that fits my criteria

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 49% order

Not at Mamdani this time, but I feel it’s a matter of time before a reporter asks this to trump and he says “we’ll have a look”

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/trump-hell-deporting-musk-feud-reignites/story?id=123372908

@Colin_space It's happened,

we're going to be watching that very carefully and a lot of people are saying he's here illegally, we're going to look at everything

https://old.reddit.com/r/law/comments/1lpcc40/president_donald_trump_suggest_zohran_mamdani_may/

(If someone has a better source than Reddit please share, I'm too lazy to find one)

@MatthiasPortzel

That’s him saying he may be here illegally and they will investigate. Not saying he should be deported. Very subtly different but important for this resolution.

So "We should probably look into that" would count but "we're going to be watching that very carefully" doesn't. Saying he should be investigated counts, but saying that he is being investigated doesn't count. But deporting him without saying anything would count. The White House twitter account saying he should be investigated would count but the White House press secretary saying he should be investigated doesn't count.

@MatthiasPortzel "We should look into that," wherein "that" means his deportation, NOT the allegation that he is here illegally. The latter is all that has been admitted so far. The criteria was clear that entertaining the idea he is here illegally is not sufficient

@Riley0RgZ I’m the second biggest yes holder and I think this interpretation is fair based on how this question was defined. We still have a lot of time in the year 😀