Minor changes to the name, such as using "Claude Opus 4.6" or "Claude 4.6 Haiku" or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude 4.6, will count for the purpose of this market. Claude 4.5 (new) doesn't count. Claude 4.5 with some increased context window doesn't count.
To count as released, the model must be accessible to some people outside Anthropic (beyond a closed beta). If it's banned in some country, this market would still resolve YES. If it is available through some API only this also counts as a release.
See also:
/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5
/Bayesian/gemini-35-google-release-date
/Bayesian/gpt55-openai-release-date
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6
/Bayesian/claude-46-anthropic-release-date (this market)
/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4
/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp
/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4
/Bayesian/when-will-moonshot-release-kimi-k3
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