An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2026. It resolves NO otherwise.

You're welcome to add any interesting facts that might or might not be true about the state of the art in math problems, as defined by achieving the highest score on the FrontierMath benchmarks.

I reserve the right to cancel any option that is too vague, too improbable, etc.

See also:
/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-y0LE5uE9n9
/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-ROldIhZZgt (this market)
/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-RQptyR5uO8

/Bayesian/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o-hyPtIE98qZ
/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o

/Bayesian/will-an-ai-achieve-30-performance-o