What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?
Plus
11
Ṁ9672027
55%
Developed by OpenAI
45%
Transformer-based architecture
44%
Part of the o1 family of models (o1, o2, etc. and variations)
41%
Narrow domain of knowledge. ie Does not know random facts such as when Google was founded, or who won the 1960 presidential election.
39%
Developed by Google Deepmind
30%
Part of the GPT-N family of models (GPT-5, GPT-6, and variations)
28%
Over 1T parameters
28%
Part of the AlphaProof family of models (AlphaProof N and variations)
22%
Developed by a non-British and non-American company
10%
Based on Symbolic AI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_artificial_intelligence)
7%
Energy-based Model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy-based_model)
An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2026. It resolves NO otherwise.
You're welcome to add any interesting facts that might or might not be true about the state of the art in math problems, as defined by achieving the highest score on the FrontierMath benchmarks.
I reserve the right to cancel any option that is too vague, too improbable, etc.
See also:
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2026?
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027? (this market)
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?55%
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?72%
Will an AI achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?YES
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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