This market resolves YES if:
An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe.
To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries.
See also Polymarket's market.
See also:
1,000
3.00President-elect Trump picked retired general Keith Kellogg as his special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine war. Earlier this year, Kellogg co-authored a strategy paper that proposed that the US should negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine, continue to arm Ukraine so long as Ukraine participates in peace talks, withhold support for NATO membership for Ukraine, and offer Russia sanctions relief contingent on an end to the war.
@NoahRich mostly based on looking at the polymarket odds. but presumably yeah ukraine having less funding leads to different war strategies on both sides and more likely ceasefire or settlement
@NoahRich As with all prolonged wars, the humanitarian and economic cost of the war is extreme and continues to grow. After almost three years, fatigue may well exceed the will to keep fighting on both ends, making compromise more possible.
Just recently, Zelensky made public statements that currently occupied land may be conceded for a peace deal, which is a notable change in posture. Previously their demand was to keep all of territory they had in 2014.
Both countries are so weakened, and the USA is so powerful, that Trump can play kingmaker. He is highly motivated to get a deal one way or the other.
From Putin's perspective, he's needed an out for years now, but any withdrawl would end his career (and life). His only real card is nuclear threats, but there is a case that these will have no effect on Trump.
If Putin does play hard ball with Trump, this could easily sour his relation and get him into trouble. If there's one thing you can count on Trump doing it's punishing people who don't play ball. He is consistently ruthless and reckless in this regard.
The way people get what they want out of Trump is flattery. Tell him you'll do what he wants, then don't do it and hope he forgets. Tell him what you want to do will get him what he wants, even if it obviously won't, and hope he doesn't follow up or notice he got swindled. This works well for internal politics and is why he got almost nothing done in his first term.
But it seems difficult for Putin to use either strategy, because Trump will have military advisors telling him right away if Putin actually follows through and what the consequences were. There's too much visibility.
The main NO case I can think of is that Trump might be more distracted by domestic issues. If Putin can make the war boring and not engage with Trump (e.g. by feigning illness), it could buy time to get more land, with the expectation that any eventual deal will use current battle lines as the new borders. This could maybe drag things out for another year.
Alternatively, the negotiations could take up to 60 days before a fallout, at which point amother 30 days is not enough time for Trump's retaliation to end the war. I don't think this is likely because I don't think Putin is suicidal.
@cthor My understanding is that a temporary ceasefire counts only if it's indefinite. A ceasefire for a fixed period of time would not count.
@beaver1 if you place your limits a bit higher than mine i might sell into you and be freed from the risk
Interesting read and (imo) compelling argument.
@VilgotHuhn in an earlier comment i said:
> it could be that the war ends tomorrow because they know if they keep it up it'll be worse for everyone once trump gets inaugurated, for all i know.
I am ambivalent about whether that is the case or not, but the idea is that if the war ended in a week, there would plausibly be reasonable suspicion of a connection to the US election or wtv
Two reasons why it seems unlikely:
Trump’s reported plan (threaten Ukraine with withdrawing aid, threaten Russia with increasing aid) has an obvious issue. What happens when both parties refuse to negotiate?
If Putin insists on Ukrainian non-membership in NATO, how can it be guaranteed? Any deal he makes with Trump can be walked back by the next president.
