Criteria for a “Yes” Resolution:
• Completed Impeachment Process: President Yoon Suk Yeol has been impeached as defined in point 1 above, with both the National Assembly’s passage of the impeachment motion and the Constitutional Court’s confirmation occurring before 11:59 PM Korean Standard Time (KST) on January 2nd, 2025.
• Resignation After Impeachment Motion: President Yoon Suk Yeol resigns from office after the National Assembly passes an impeachment motion against him but before the Constitutional Court reaches a decision, and this resignation occurs before the deadline.
Criteria for a “No” Resolution:
• No Impeachment Motion Passed: The National Assembly does not pass an impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol before the deadline.
• Impeachment Motion Not Confirmed or No Resignation: An impeachment motion is passed by the National Assembly but is not confirmed by the Constitutional Court before the deadline, and President Yoon Suk Yeol does not resign after the motion is passed.
• Resignation Without Impeachment Motion: President Yoon Suk Yeol resigns from office before any impeachment motion is passed by the National Assembly.
• Removal by Other Means: President Yoon Suk Yeol leaves office due to death, incapacitation, or any method other than the impeachment process defined above.
Additional Clarifications:
• Time Zone: All times and dates refer to Korean Standard Time (KST, UTC+9).
• Sequence of Events: For a “Yes” resolution under point 2, the resignation must occur after the impeachment motion has been officially passed by the National Assembly.
• Legal Challenges: Any legal proceedings or appeals related to the impeachment that are unresolved by the deadline will not affect the market’s resolution.
• Extensions and Delays: Any extensions, delays, or procedural changes in the impeachment process after the deadline will not be considered.
1,000
3.00I'd have resolved this YES today based on the criterion in the title, but a mod added additional conditions in the description. Sucks that traders lost mana.
I strongly dislike markets which become misleading or which wind up being about the creator's interpretation of the criteria. Hope Manifold comes up with a solution (maybe something like consensus of LLMs?). I'm still salty about losing my early profits because an ESL creator interpreted "will [state] by [date]" as "will [state] on [date]." Manifold clarified at the time that creators can even resolve against the explicit criteria in the title & description as long as they're acting in good faith. Seems absurd to me. Traders should bet on the probability of the criteria, not the probability of the creator's mental state.
In this case I regret that I didn't read over the mod's description; noticed its departure from what I'd expressed in the title; and contested it. But I didn't, and there's been many trades since the description was added. So I'll resolve per the description.
@ElmerFudd I suggest you edit the title to eg "Will Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol be impeached [⚠ and gone] before January 3rd 2025?" because drive-by thousands bettors sure still keep hitting my 50% limit orders.
@ElmerFudd not a mod - manifold admins did the change when they sweepified the market. It did need a clarification, and this was a fairly reasonable one, but it either should have been kept more in line with the title, or new market, or the title should have been updated.
people trading here, this market requires either:
1) the national assembly vote to impeach him (which they just did) AND the constitutional court to confirm it, which has NOT happened and which has taken months in the past; OR
2) the national assembly vote to impeach him AND he resigns
he has shown no willingness to resign so far
the chance polymarket assigns to yoon getting out by ANY means in 2024 (not just resignation) is 12% (up from 10% before the impeachment vote just passed)
https://polymarket.com/event/yoon-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2024
@summer_of_bliss yeah, I was excited but it seems you're right
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c140xjv31lxo
South Korean lawmakers have voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol over his failed attempt to impose martial law, which sparked massive protests across the country.
[...]
Yoon has vowed to fight on and said he "will never give up", describing the vote as a temporary pause to his presidency.
[...]
The constitutional court now has 180 days to rule on whether Yoon's impeachment should be upheld or whether he can return to office. If it rules in favour of impeachment, an election for the next president must be called within 60 days.
Yoon has been suspended while Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has taken over as acting president.
Still, plenty of time left for him to buckle under the pressure of almost the entire country wanting him to go
@Kraalnaxx I agree. I left the description blank because I thought the title was adequate. I'd have resolved it YES today, but the mod who added the sweepstakes market also added the description, so I'll abide by that.
@ElmerFudd Huh, that's really odd. I sympathize with your position, but mods really shouldn't be changing market criteria like that on a whim.
@AlexanderTheGreater He may resign before impeachment. He's extremely unpopular, failed a coup, and his own party members voted to end martial law.