Will Amish fertility drop below 5 children per women by the end of 2040? | Manifold

Will Amish fertility drop below 5 children per women by the end of 2040?

Basic

1

Ṁ21

2041

59%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://x.com/lymanstoneky/status/1826626736140026126?s=19

Closes 6 months in to give time for the data to come out

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What if it drops below 5 and then rebounds?

That would count as dropping below 5, yes. That said, I'll only be considering sources that are published yearly, so if, say, the one-month fertility rate drops that low and then rebounds within the year, I won't pay any attention.

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