Who Should Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Who Should Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
9
Never closes
OpenAI/Microsoft
Deepmind/Google/Alphabet
Anthropic
Meta (Facebook) AI Research
xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative
Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)
A government or coalition of governments
A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these
Other
Assuming it will happen. Who would you most like to see win? I've mirrored the options here, + "Other"
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Which lab will claim that they have developed AGI first?
Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Who first builds an Artificial General Intelligence?
Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
16% chance
By when will we have AGI?
Which company will create AGI first?
A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
24% chance