Within a year of the election, will Trump publicly disparage Elon Musk?
This could be for any reason, provoked or otherwise. Things like belittling nicknames and personal insults would count, or "I never liked him anyway" type statements.
As this might be somewhat subjective, I won't trade.
Update 2025-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that for a statement to count as disparagement, it should be clearly bullying or belittling Musk specifically. An ambiguous statement (e.g., an anecdote about "a fat person" rather than a direct insult to Musk about his weight) may not count if:
It appears primarily intended to support a policy rather than to personally attack or distance from Musk.
It is accompanied by simultaneous positive statements about Musk.
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator elaborated that statements constituting 'back-handed praise' of Musk (e.g., comments that are 'not exactly nice' but are combined with explicit praise) do not meet the threshold for disparagement for this market. Such statements, on their own, are considered 'not particularly close to resolving the question' if they are not clearly bullying or belittling Musk specifically.
1,000
3.00@SoullessScythe a back-handed "compliment" isn't a compliment, it's even more disparaging. Because it insinuates the person being disparaged, wond even understand a back handed compliment is actually an insult and he thinks Elon is too stupid to catch onto it. So. My question is do you understand human sociology, or psychopathy well enough to understand he has already been disparaged. And do you have the adequate education to understand your own bet?
@SoullessScythe kindly omit the condescending and disrespectful comments and instead include your basis for this resolving to "Yes".
"Twice by my count", and, "Pretty sure musk was publicly disparaged" is not a sufficient basis to resolve this question. Instead of providing commentary, provide some actual evidence.
If I had a position in "Yes" and I believe something has occurred which should have resolved this to "Yes", I'd be personally going out of my way to provide a detailed comment of why this is the case - why are you not doing the same?
@SoullessScythe Evan is, in my 10+ years of knowing him, a very thoughtful and evenhanded person. It's also very difficult for me to to imagine that he'd have any particular personal stake in resolving the question one way or another. I took an early Yes position because I expected something a lot more blatant and I agree we still haven't seen it.
He just personally insulted him for being fat (I think)
@EBITDA Kinda? But it seems pretty unclear and he's also busy calling him a "brilliant businessman" and such. I watch that and I see an anecdote about a fat person, not bullying or belittling someone for being fat. It also doesn't sound like Trump is trying to distance himself, he's using the anecdote to support a policy of his own.
What's the case for Yes based on this quote?
@EvanDaniel after reading the inital comment, then going on to watch the video, my inital response was, "how the heck does one think this would be sufficient to resolve the question?". So your response is slightly worrying in that you seem to be tentatively considering it...
Am I missing something here, either in your response or in the resolution criteria?
@vitamind Not really. Just didn't want to dismiss the possibility of a reasonable argument out of hand if there was one, or if there was somehow more to the video that I hadn't seen. The video doesn't seem exactly complimentary to Musk, but it's quite a ways off from disparagement. He's basically praising Musk but being a bit back-handed about it, as I read it... not exactly nice, but not particularly close to resolving the question. Perhaps less kind than usual, and therefore perhaps evidence towards a positive outcome eventually, but not even close to the standards of this question on its own.
Sorry about the confusion.
This question is (scarily) nearly at the halfway point. Has anyone gotten more bullish on this resolving to "Yes" in the based on the past 172 days? If so, why?
@vitamind I think Elon Musk is withdrawing from politics. Trump is pretty erratic, I'd give him decent odds of disparaging anyone who's not an active sycophant.
@SaiVazquez I don't know. I think it will happen within the year, though, at most by the end of midterms. All it takes is one big blowup. Trump has had a falling out with so many of his formerly core people over the years that it feels inevitable.
Scoop: Musk vs. Bessent dispute erupted into West Wing shouting match
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/23/musk-bessent-trump-white-house-irs
@SoullessScythe That can't be used to justify a 50/50 split. What if it was two years instead of one? You have to model it as something like an exponential distribution where on any given day there's some small probability Musk is fired. Then the question is how long do you think he holds on for?