Will Jonathan Ray's market on the causes of the increase of life expectancy resolve as intended?
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This market resolves yes if the following market fits all the following criteria:
resolves within a reasonable time after 2050 (and not before!)
doesn't NA
the total probabilities add up to 100%
This market resolves no if any of the criteria above aren't fulfilled or clearly won't be able to be fulfilled. (This includes if Manifold stops existing)
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/how-will-scientific-consensus-in-20
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@4fa If Manifold announces it will close down, I will resolve this to no. Alternatively, Manifold might want to resolve the market that can be resolved before completely shutting down.
@4fa But yeah, obviously, if it just "stops existing" out of nowhere, I won't be able to resolve this market either.
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