What will be true of WW3?
What will be true of WW3?
Plus
48
Ṁ99452100
80%
It will involve USA and China on different sides
78%
AI will be at least one of the strategic advantages and important weapons
72%
It will start from a series of local conflicts
69%
Informational influence of the adversaries in social media will be considered as an important factor in it
64%
There will be some countries that are generally no worse in the quality of life after it ends compared to when it starts
62%
It will start before 2100
61%
After twenty years after its end, world GDP will be no less than when it started
60%
It will involve space-based weapons
59%
It will involve massive use of bioweapons
50%
It will last less than 5 years
50%
It will be nuclear
45%
It will start before 2060
45%
It will involve USA+Europe(+others) on one side and China+Russia+Iran(+others) on another side
38%
It will start before 2040
37%
A new global superpower will emerge after its end
36%
It will last more than 10 years
35%
It will start from the invasion of China in Taiwan
33%
It will last 5-10 years
30%
Switzerland will participate in it
30%
It will involve massive use of nanotechnology
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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