Will Helion's Polaris fusion reactor produce net electricity by Jan 1st, 2025?
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This market resolves YES if by two months after the start of 2025, Helion has announced that they produced "a small amount of net electricity" from their Polaris reactor as they have predicted. (see https://blog.samaltman.com/helion) Jan 25, 7:05pm: I'll just see if they announce it themselves. Jan 25, 7:06pm: Personally, I would consider it to have to be system level, that in total it produces slightly more electricity than it consumed.
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What exactly does "net electricity" mean here? Their plan with Polaris is to recover more electromagnetic energy into their capacitors than they put into the fuel, but other demands (cooling etc.) will still make it net negative overall (see for example https://spectrum.ieee.org/fusion). Would it still count for this question if they achieve this?

predictedNO

What if they claim it in a press release and it turns out to be a big fraud like theranos?

@JonathanRay I'll look with a skeptical eye, but if it seems the community of fusion researchers isn't highly skeptical, I will believe their press release.

I would want to see that their measurements looked rigorous.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wK5v1Nw98xs

Announcing Helion’s first customer: Microsoft. We expect to start producing electricity in the world’s first fusion power plant by 2028, dramatically shortening the timeline for commercially viable fusion energy.
https://twitter.com/Helion_Energy/status/1656283665398403072?s=20

More specific markets: https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-helion-achieve-breakeven-deute (D-T by 2024) https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-helion-achieve-breakeven-deute-59548b0d04dc (D-He3 by 2026)
Not equivalent -- those markets are for Q>1 which is a significantly easier milestone than net electricity. Net electricity would have to account for all of the losses involved in converting thermal energy taken out of the plasma into electricity.
@JamesBabcock Didn't realise that - thanks!

@JamesBabcock I think Helion's design makes this question even more ambiguous. Their approach is that alpha (He nuclei) radiation pushes back on the magnetic field driving an electric current greater than the one they used to compress plasma. I suspect Net Electricity will only include the current discharged from capacitors and then recharged by the expanding plasma. I'm not sure this is even scientific Q >1 , if it doesn't include other heating of the plasma.

Sounds like @sama is bullish here. "Speaking of turning money into big positive impacts on the future, Sam Altman writes in to say he enjoyed the recent book review of The Future Of Fusion Energy, and that he predicts Helion (the fusion startup he’s a leading investor in) has a 85% chance of Q > 1 D-T fusion by 2024, and a 65% chance of Q > 1 D-He3 fusion by 2026." Source: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-232
It seems unlikely that they’ll get to net electricity this soon, though given their high valuation, it seems more likely than for most startups. 2030 or so would be much more plausible.
Which definition of "net electricity" are you using? See: https://backreaction.blogspot.com/2021/10/how-close-is-nuclear-fusion-power.html

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