What happens if Trump wins 2024 elections? [unlinked, add your answers]
What happens if Trump wins 2024 elections? [unlinked, add your answers]
Basic
38
Ṁ5545
2030
99%
He won 300+ electoral votes
98.7%
He also wins the popular vote.
95%
The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.
91%
Democrats win the House majority in 2026.
90%
The S&P 500 will be above 5000 at the end of 2024
88%
Trump pardons himself (regardless of whether the self-pardon is overruled by court decision)
83%
Trump serves full second term
81%
He serves the full term
72%
Inflation is higher when he leaves office than when he takes office
65%
He gets impeached again.
59%
Democrats win Senate majority in 2026
50%
Ukraine war reaches a ceasefire that is observed for 1 year
45%
His VP becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.
20%
he has a fatal or near-fatal health issue while in office
20%
Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living
13%
The U.S. has a higher World Press Freedom Index in 2028 than 2024.
5%
A national abortion ban is passed during his term.
2%
Trump is President on January 21, 2029
1.6%
Biden runs for president again in 2028
1.6%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is President on January 21, 2029

Answers resolve to YES or NO if the event clearly did or did not happen by the date specified in the answer (2030-01-01 by default). In case it is unclear or controversial whether the event happened, resolves N/A.

Sibling market:

#Trump
#Republican Party
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#Joe Biden
#Future US Presidents
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
answered1y
Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living
bought Ṁ10 Does not relinquish ... YES1y

Does this include attempts to hold onto power, even if unsuccessful?

1y

@Snarflak it probably does, in a case of a serious attempt.

11mo

@Snarflak Yes.

reposted 1y

This market is illiquidly stuck in 2 options: Trump finishes term and Trump never leaves.

1y

@ClubmasterTransparent could you elaborate that please?

1y

Does not relinquish power at end of original term if still living

1y

@ClubmasterTransparent can you add this as an answer?

1y

@JuJumper yes, didn't mean to put as comment haha

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules