If Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, will he still be the president on January 21st, 2029?

Also, it seems like no one else interacted with the market between you buying and selling. Was the "big loss" just the fees or is there something obvious I'm missing?

5mo

@NBAP My big loss was just the fees (and a significant remaining position that may be fine at the current price but which I can't liquidate). A more idiot-proof title would be "If Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, will he still be President on the day after the 2029 inauguration (i.e. January 21st, 2029)"?

I confused a "will Trump overthrow democracy" market with a "will Trump make it through a full term" market (which would have had the same title as this, except with January 20th rather than January 21st).

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

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