Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?
➕
Plus
671
Ṁ1.1m
Apr 30
72%
Mark Carney (or other Liberal leader)
28%
Pierre Poilievre
0%
Justin Trudeau
0%
Other
0%
Yves-François Blanchet
0%
Jagmeet Singh

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

LOESS curve of opinion polls of voters for the 2025 Canadian federal election campaign:

Dark mode for viewing pleasure:

Up-to-date as of April 2, 2025. 30-poll smoothing factor. Square root applied to sample sizes when weighting. Highlight ribbon is of 95% confidence interval of local regression standard error (not polling margin of error).

It's hard to say for sure, but a lot will depend on the party platforms, leadership qualities, and what voters prioritize in the upcoming election. With the political landscape always shifting, anything could happen.

boughtṀ2,000 YES

@FoxKHTML Enlightened Chad

bought Ṁ7 YES

WILL PAPA PIERRE UNCEREMONIOUSLY WIPE THE FLOOR WITH CARNAGE CARNEY AT THE DEBATE? BET HERE!

April 18th, Noon EST:

boughtṀ1 YES

@Tumbles I'm glad that after realizing your jinxing powers you decided to use them for good

@Joshua I am a hero yes, many people are saying this

The only plausible outcome

SOON. Can't wait for a second helping of @Joshua 's librul tears

@dlin007 We'll both have egg on our faces when it turns out polls are so unreal that the Bloc wins a majority.

bought Ṁ5,000 NO
Comment hidden
Comment hidden
Comment hidden
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules