Outcome of next Canadian federal election
28
Ṁ9595
2026
25%
Liberal majority
24%
Liberal minority
33%
Conservative minority
18%
Conservative majority
0.4%
Other

In the unlikely event that there is any coalition government, I'll resolve this as Other.

This would not include a supply and confidence agreement.

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https://manifold.markets/dittopoop/will-the-conservative-party-of-cana

Im an LPC believer too but im SO CONFUSED why this market is consistently 10pts lower

bought Ṁ200 NO

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 34% order

I'm so confused, can't multiple of these resolve yes?

@HillaryClinton I assumed that if Conservatives have more seats than liberals, but still a minority, it would resolve to Conservative minority.

Is that what you are confused about or something else?

@Seanny123 so what if conservatives have a majority and liberals have a minority?

@HillaryClinton only one party can form government

I'm honestly surprised Manifold is still favouring the Conservatives.

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