Which Canadian political party will win the 2nd most seats in next federal election?
Which Canadian political party will win the 2nd most seats in next federal election?
Plus
18
Ṁ4854Oct 21
66%
Conservative Party
32%
Liberal Party
1%
Bloc Quebecois
1%
New Democratic Party
1%
Green Party
Canada is slated for a federal election on or before 20 October 2025.
While Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party is far out in front according to polling, the party that has the best chance of forming the Official Opposition is still uncertain.
338Canada currently projects the Liberals, Bloc Quebecois, and the NDP to win comparable numbers of seats in the House of Commons.
This question resolves YES to the above-listed party that wins the second largest number of seats at the conclusion of the next Canadian federal election. If there's a tie, both parties in 2nd place will resolve YES.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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