When in 2025 will my total earned mana hit 10,000Ṁ? This market is about the exact interval in which my total earned mana will hit 10,000Ṁ for the first time. The source for this is the stated net worth on my profile page, excepting corrections listed below. The second half of the year is in three-month blocks to keep the number of options manageable.

• All earned mana counts towards the total, including bonuses like the daily bonus and unique trader bonuses on created markets.

• Mana spent to create questions subtracts from the total, and refunded liquidity after a market is closed adds to the total. Generally I will only make markets when the weekly bonus refunds the cost or when I think the unique trader bonuses will make back the creation cost.

• Mana that was gifted or loaned does not count towards the total, and when a gift occurs I will add the amount to 10,000Ṁ to show the "corrected" target (not for Manifold loans since those are already subtracted from net worth).

• Profit made from bets with gifted or loaned mana does count towards the total.

• Mana bought obviously will not count, and I wouldn't buy mana anyways.

To avoid conflicts of interest or recursive effects I will not bet on this market.

Update: After a 1,000Ṁ payment (that doesn't count towards the total) the new target is now 11,000Ṁ.