Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries?

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103

Ṁ25k

2028

32%

Josh Shapiro

30%

Gavin Newsom

28%

Pete Buttigieg

25%

J. B. Pritzker

20%

Gretchen Whitmer

14%

Tim Walz

12%

Amy Klobuchar

12%

Raphael Warnock

11%

Gina Raimondo

11%

Tammy Duckworth

11%

Deval Patrick

11%

Cory Booker

10%

Jared Polis

Martin O'Malley

Beto O'Rourke

Tina Kotek

Katie Hobbs

Maura Healey

Mark Kelly

Andy Beshear

An answer resolves YES if that person wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries. Otherwise the answer will resolve NO once all contests are over.

The source of the official delegate count will be the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the DNC's official statements.

Nominating contests in places which are not states will not count for the purposes of this market (e.g. Washington D.C., American Samoa, etc.).

If there is a caucus in a state instead of a primary, or if there is more than one nominating contest (e.g. if there is a primary and a caucus) then nothing changes - the important factor is who wins the most delegates in that state.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Democratic Party

#2028 US presidential election

#2028 Presidential Primaries

#Can Candidate Win State/s?

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Harris's prob jumped when she became nominee but none of the other probabilities fell? There became a 50% chance Harris would be the only one winning any state. Tried to get the probs to better reflect that.

Why is Kamala not near 100%?

Nvm lol

bought Ṁ20 NO

if she loses this election will she really contest again in 2028?

Misread this market as being for 2024, that makes sense

bought Ṁ10 NO

Winning a state is hard! Most people drop out before voting starts. I think buying NO on all of these is plus ev as they say

bought Ṁ20 NO

@AndrewG Ain't no way Wayne Messam's campaign would get off the ground. Does anyone even remember his 2020 bid?

Duplicate! Did you get all your mana back? @houstonEuler

@Tripping Based on your balance log you only got 10M back, so I sent you 15M to cover the loss

@Tripping Sorry, I thought I looked through all of them and didn't see him. Thanks!

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