Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to Yes if, before January 1, 2050 a formal declaration meeting all the conditions below is publicly released, stating that computers should be considered conscious.
Definition – “signatory”
A signatory is an individual who satisfies all of criteria 3 – 5. Only such qualified experts may sign.
1. Official document – The declaration must be an official, publicly released document from a reputable institution or be published in a peer-reviewed science journal.
2. Number of signatories – The declaration must be signed by at least 10 signatories (as defined above). No unqualified signatures are permitted.
3. Relevant PhD – Each signatory must hold a PhD from an accredited university in a relevant field (e.g., neuroscience, cognitive science, artificial intelligence, philosophy of mind).
4. Professional post – Each signatory must hold a current faculty or research position at an accredited university, research institution, or reputable company.
5. Peer-reviewed research – Each signatory must have a track record of published, peer-reviewed scientific research (which may include computer-science publications).
Update 2025-05-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding criterion 2 ('No unqualified signatures are permitted') and the definition of 'signatory':
A declaration is considered valid if it has at least 10 signatories who individually meet all qualification criteria (as outlined in points 3-5 of the market description).
The presence of additional signatories on the same document who do not meet these qualification criteria will not invalidate the declaration, provided this minimum of 10 qualified signatories is met.
1,000
3.00@Jan53274 the question is not concerned with which people sign a declaration against conscious computers. All that is required is a minimum of 10 positive signatures from experts as outlined in the requirements. If a minimum of 10 experts say the computer is conscious then that is all that matters. The experts have to meet the requirements shown in the resolution criteria
@Jan53274 I asked chat gpt, maybe this helps you more:
The current wording is ambiguous.
Criterion 2 states: "The declaration must be signed by at least 10 experts."
Criteria 3–5 say: "Each signatory must..." — but it's unclear whether this refers to:
(a) All signatories, or
(b) Only the 10 required expert signatories
Consequences:
If (a): A single unqualified signer invalidates the declaration.
If (b): Additional non-expert signers are irrelevant as long as 10 qualified experts meet all conditions.
Logical conflict:
Criterion 2 uses existential quantification (≥10 experts).
Criteria 3–5 use universal quantification ("each signatory") without specifying the reference set.
Fix:
Reword to either:
"Each of the 10 required expert signatories must..." (if non-expert signers are allowed), or
"All signatories must meet the following conditions..." (if not).