First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by February 1st 2025 | Manifold

First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by February 1st 2025

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resolved Feb 1

Resolved

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Currently no confirmed human-to-human transmission. Resolves YES if WHO or CDC confirms first case of human-to-human H5N1 transmission anywhere globally by February 1, 2025. Resolution source: WHO/CDC official announcements.

Next deadline: /ian/first-confirmed-humantohuman-h5n1-t-zZnInOSz5g

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bought Ṁ250 NO

I think even if this happens, it will take a long time to confirm.

Trading at 4% on Polymarket
https://polymarket.com/event/human-to-human-bird-flu-transmission-before-february/human-to-human-bird-flu-transmission-before-february?tid=1735739753394

bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 20% to 10%

bought Ṁ50 NO

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