“Venezuela is expanding military bases near its border with Guyana and deploying forces to the jungle frontier as President Nicolás Maduro ramps up his threats to annex the country’s oil-rich neighbour, satellite images have revealed.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/09/venezuela-troops-guyana-border-essequibo-satellite-images

What is the definition of "Guyanese territory"?

@Nick6d8e @jks Can you clarify? Does any territory claimed by Guyana count?

@Nick6d8e Only territory internationally recognized as under sovereign authority of Guyana. I am not aware of any territorial claims made by Guyana otherwise.

@jks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ankoko_Island If Venezuela continues to occupy the Guyanese half of Ankoko Island, does that count? I think it has the same recognition status and claim history as the rest of the Esequibo territory. The difference, of course, is that it was already occupied by Venezuela before the recent referendum.

@Nick6d8e In the spirit of my original intent, I don’t want to count this, especially since I’ve already resolved the first of these markets to NO. Perhaps I should change the market title to say “new de facto rule”?

@jks Makes sense to me - it seemed like an edge case that probably was not intended to be covered, but I wanted to make sure.

@Patches slugcat 👀

Does Venezuelan companies controlling territory count as "de facto rule"?

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelas-maduro-push-oil-exploration-disputed-territory-2023-12-06/

@Control My initial thought is, “No, companies alone do not count,” but if the companies are state-run and enforce their claims with quasi-military organization(s), then that will count.

How long does the rule have to be exercised for in order for this market to resolve yes? If Venezuela invades, controls some territory for a month, and then is pushed out, does that count?

@sesquipedalianThaumaturge A month certainly would count. I want to give you a clear answer but am still mulling over time requirements. I’m leaning towards one week, but regardless I will not make any hasty decisions regarding any of my Venezuela/Guyana markets.

Nothing Ever Happens applies here

After an inconsistency was pointed out by @BrunoParga, I have changed the title to better reflect my original intent with this market and related markets. Please let me know if there are further questions or needed clarifications.